XRP
Rising Fed Rate Hike Odds Impact Market Environment for Major Cryptocurrencies
Prediction market pricing for a September Federal Reserve rate hike has surged to 83% following an unexpected uptick in core CPI.
Polymarket traders have priced an 83% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the upcoming Sept. 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 50% before the August inflation report and 30% prior to Jackson Hole. The probability of rates remaining unchanged is priced at 18%.
The shift in sentiment occurred after August core consumer prices increased by 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% consensus projection, while headline inflation aligned with expectations. The hotter core reading prompted Barclays to adjust its outlook to anticipate back-to-back quarter-point hikes.
A policy tightening would represent the central bank's first rate increase since 2023, following five meetings with the federal funds upper target held at 3.75%. As bond markets adjusted, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.95% on Sept. 10. Amid these macroeconomic conditions, XRP traded at $1.37 and Bitcoin at $77,293.66 on Sept. 12.
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